Month-one CPA is not the number to plan around. This is how programmatic cost per FTD compresses as the pixel matures and the retargeting pool builds.
| Month | Share of baseline CPA | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| Month 1 | 100% | baseline |
| Month 2 | 80-90% | early compression |
| Month 3 | 65-75% | pixel maturing |
| Month 4-6 | 50-60% | retargeting on |
| Month 7-12 | 40-50% | healthy pool |
The single most common media-buying mistake in iGaming is setting a target CPA in month one and judging the channel against it two weeks later, before the pixel has matured or the pool has built. Early CPA runs 1.5 to 2 times the eventual target; that is pool-building cost, not a failing channel.
The levers that compress CPA are better creative, a better landing page, tighter GEO and time-of-day targeting, frequency caps, retargeting concentration, fraud filtering and source consolidation. A healthy retargeting pool is the biggest single factor in the months 7 to 12 floor.
It falls. On a typical programmatic curve, month one is the baseline, months 2 to 3 run at 65 to 90 percent of it, and months 7 to 12 settle at 40 to 50 percent as retargeting matures.
Month one is pool building, not steady state. Early CPA runs 1.5 to 2 times the eventual target while the pixel matures and creative is tested. That cost is expected and temporary.
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